Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
27%
McNeese
73%
Vanderbilt
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave McNeese 27% and a 7.2-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 17%. Vanderbilt won 78–68.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between McNeese and Vanderbilt, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Vanderbilt is the stronger team on paper
Vanderbilt outscored opponents by 27.5 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; McNeese by 13.3.
Edge: Vanderbilt
Second chances for McNeese
McNeese grabs 36.3% of its misses (98th percentile); Vanderbilt secures 67.5% of opponents' misses (21st percentile).
Edge: McNeese
Vanderbilt faced the tougher schedule
Vanderbilt's average opponent was 14.5 points per 100 possessions better than McNeese's.
Edge: Vanderbilt
Second chances for Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt grabs 30.3% of its misses (45th percentile); McNeese secures 65.8% of opponents' misses (5th percentile).
Edge: Vanderbilt
McNeese's bench scores more
McNeese's reserves average 30.2 points per game; Vanderbilt's 19.7.
Edge: McNeese
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | McNeese | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 79th | 98th |
| Defense | 84th | 91st |
| Shooting | 57th | 87th |
| Rebounding | 52nd | 33rd |
| Ball security | 82nd | 94th |
| Size & experience | 24th | 26th |
| Schedule | 57th | 94th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
VANVanderbilt won78–68
Closing line: McNeese +12.25(covered)
No common opponents this season.