Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
53%
Louisville
47%
Michigan State
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Mar 21 (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Louisville 53% and a 0.8-point edge; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 38%. Michigan State won 77–69.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Louisville and Michigan State, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Strength on strength: Louisville's offense vs. Michigan State's defense
Louisville scores 124.1 per 100 possessions (95th percentile); Michigan State allows 93.2 (97th percentile).
Even matchup
Strength on strength: Michigan State's offense vs. Louisville's defense
Michigan State scores 122.7 per 100 possessions (92nd percentile); Louisville allows 96.7 (95th percentile).
Even matchup
Michigan State has more continuity
Michigan State's minutes go to players averaging 2.56 seasons in the program; Louisville's 1.36.
Edge: Michigan State
Pace clash: Louisville runs, Michigan State slows it down
Louisville averages 70.8 possessions per 40 minutes; Michigan State 66.4. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Louisville | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 95th | 92nd |
| Defense | 95th | 97th |
| Shooting | 84th | 86th |
| Rebounding | 41st | 72nd |
| Ball security | 46th | 46th |
| Size & experience | 42nd | 90th |
| Schedule | 91st | 98th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Mar 21, 2026Round of 32· Neutral site
MSUMichigan State won77–69
Closing line: Louisville +5.5(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 5 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Louisville | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| ARKArkansas | L80–89away | W69–66home |
| DUKEDuke | L73–84homeL52–83away | L60–66home |
| INDIndiana | W87–78neutral | W81–60homeW77–64away |
| UKKentucky | W96–88home | W83–66neutral |
| UNCNorth Carolina | L74–77away | W74–58neutral |