Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 592 games through Nov 10
35%
Louisville
65%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Louisville and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Second chances for Louisville
Louisville grabs 37.6% of its misses (86th percentile); Duke secures 67.7% of opponents' misses (43rd percentile).
Edge: Louisville
Duke is safer at the line late
Duke shoots 71.2% on free throws; Louisville 64.8%.
Edge: Duke
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 1.6 inches taller than Louisville's.
Edge: Duke
Duke has more continuity
Duke's minutes go to players averaging 1.89 seasons in the program; Louisville's 1.13.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Louisville | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 43rd | 52nd |
| Rebounding | 75th | 59th |
| Ball security | 94th | 45th |
| Size & experience | 47th | 93rd |
Games between them in 2026–27.
Louisville and Duke did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.