Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
2%
LIU
98%
Arizona
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave LIU 2% and a 23.0-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 2%. Arizona won 92–58.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between LIU and Arizona, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Arizona is the stronger team on paper
Arizona outscored opponents by 37.9 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; LIU by -3.0.
Edge: Arizona
Arizona faced the tougher schedule
Arizona's average opponent was 24.1 points per 100 possessions better than LIU's.
Edge: Arizona
Second chances for LIU
LIU grabs 32.6% of its misses (73rd percentile); Arizona secures 65.6% of opponents' misses (4th percentile).
Edge: LIU
Arizona's offense should find room
Arizona's offense ranks in the 98th percentile; LIU's defense in the 53rd percentile.
Edge: Arizona
Second chances for Arizona
Arizona grabs 30.4% of its misses (47th percentile); LIU secures 65.7% of opponents' misses (4th percentile).
Edge: Arizona
Arizona is safer at the line late
Arizona shoots 73.4% on free throws; LIU 66.7%.
Edge: Arizona
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | LIU | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 39th | 98th |
| Defense | 53rd | 99th |
| Shooting | 57th | 82nd |
| Rebounding | 39th | 25th |
| Ball security | 15th | 82nd |
| Size & experience | 34th | 74th |
| Schedule | 14th | 98th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
ARIArizona won92–58
Closing line: LIU +30.5(did not cover)
No common opponents this season.