Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
28%
Kentucky
72%
Iowa State
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Mar 22 (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Kentucky 28% and a 6.8-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 34%. Iowa State won 82–63.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Kentucky and Iowa State, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Strength on strength: Iowa State's offense vs. Kentucky's defense
Iowa State scores 125.0 per 100 possessions (96th percentile); Kentucky allows 98.3 (93rd percentile).
Even matchup
Strength on strength: Kentucky's offense vs. Iowa State's defense
Kentucky scores 121.5 per 100 possessions (90th percentile); Iowa State allows 91.4 (98th percentile).
Even matchup
Iowa State is the stronger team on paper
Iowa State outscored opponents by 33.6 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Kentucky by 23.2.
Edge: Iowa State
Second chances for Iowa State
Iowa State grabs 33.5% of its misses (82nd percentile); Kentucky secures 68.1% of opponents' misses (28th percentile).
Edge: Iowa State
Iowa State has more continuity
Iowa State's minutes go to players averaging 2.03 seasons in the program; Kentucky's 1.42.
Edge: Iowa State
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Kentucky | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 90th | 96th |
| Defense | 93rd | 98th |
| Shooting | 60th | 66th |
| Rebounding | 42nd | 70th |
| Ball security | 65th | 82nd |
| Size & experience | 56th | 68th |
| Schedule | 98th | 89th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Mar 22, 2026Round of 32· Neutral site
ISUIowa State won82–63
Closing line: Kentucky +5.25(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 4 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Kentucky | Iowa State |
|---|---|---|
| E IEastern Illinois | W99–53home | W78–53home |
| MISMississippi State | W92–68home | W96–80neutral |
| SJUSt. John's | W78–66neutral | W83–82neutral |
| TENTennessee | W80–78awayW74–71home | L62–76neutral |