Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
8%
Kennesaw State
92%
Gonzaga
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Kennesaw State 8% and a 16.1-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 5%. Gonzaga won 73–64.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Kennesaw State and Gonzaga, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Gonzaga is the stronger team on paper
Gonzaga outscored opponents by 31.5 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Kennesaw State by 1.5.
Edge: Gonzaga
Gonzaga's offense should find room
Gonzaga's offense ranks in the 92nd percentile; Kennesaw State's defense in the 51st percentile.
Edge: Gonzaga
Gonzaga faced the tougher schedule
Gonzaga's average opponent was 7.9 points per 100 possessions better than Kennesaw State's.
Edge: Gonzaga
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Kennesaw State | Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 61st | 92nd |
| Defense | 51st | 99th |
| Shooting | 44th | 57th |
| Rebounding | 60th | 51st |
| Ball security | 46th | 94th |
| Size & experience | 66th | 56th |
| Schedule | 53rd | 77th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
GONGonzaga won73–64
Closing line: Kennesaw State +20.5(covered)
How each team fared against the 1 opponent they both played.
| Opponent | Kennesaw State | Gonzaga |
|---|---|---|
| ALAAlabama | L81–92neutral | W95–85neutral |