Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
46%
Kansas
54%
St. John's
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Mar 22 (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Kansas 46% and a 1.3-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 40%. St. John's won 67–65.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Kansas and St. John's, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Second chances for St. John's
St. John's grabs 33.6% of its misses (82nd percentile); Kansas secures 66.4% of opponents' misses (10th percentile).
Edge: St. John's
Strength on strength: St. John's's offense vs. Kansas's defense
St. John's scores 121.6 per 100 possessions (90th percentile); Kansas allows 92.8 (98th percentile).
Even matchup
St. John's's bench scores more
St. John's's reserves average 24.5 points per game; Kansas's 14.3.
Edge: St. John's
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Kansas | St. John's |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 82nd | 90th |
| Defense | 98th | 97th |
| Shooting | 66th | 47th |
| Rebounding | 9th | 58th |
| Ball security | 65th | 82nd |
| Size & experience | 55th | 44th |
| Schedule | 99th | 93rd |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Mar 22, 2026Round of 32· Neutral site
SJUSt. John's won67–65
Closing line: Kansas +3.5(covered)
How each team fared against the 4 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Kansas | St. John's |
|---|---|---|
| BAYBaylor | W80–62home | W96–81neutral |
| DUKEDuke | L66–78neutral | L75–80neutral |
| ISUIowa State | W84–63homeL56–74away | L82–83neutral |
| UCUConn | L56–61home | W81–72homeL40–72awayW72–52home |