Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
65%
Iowa State
35%
Tennessee
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Mar 27 (neutral site), median of 1 book.
For that game the model gave Iowa State 65% and a 4.6-point edge; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 63%. Tennessee won 76–62.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Iowa State and Tennessee, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Second chances for Iowa State
Iowa State grabs 33.5% of its misses (82nd percentile); Tennessee secures 65.8% of opponents' misses (5th percentile).
Edge: Iowa State
Strength on strength: Iowa State's offense vs. Tennessee's defense
Iowa State scores 125.0 per 100 possessions (96th percentile); Tennessee allows 94.1 (97th percentile).
Even matchup
Strength on strength: Tennessee's offense vs. Iowa State's defense
Tennessee scores 121.8 per 100 possessions (91st percentile); Iowa State allows 91.4 (98th percentile).
Even matchup
Second chances for Tennessee
Tennessee grabs 37.4% of its misses (100th percentile); Iowa State secures 69.9% of opponents' misses (59th percentile).
Edge: Tennessee
Iowa State is the stronger team on paper
Iowa State outscored opponents by 33.6 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Tennessee by 27.8.
Edge: Iowa State
Iowa State has more continuity
Iowa State's minutes go to players averaging 2.03 seasons in the program; Tennessee's 1.45.
Edge: Iowa State
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Iowa State | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 96th | 91st |
| Defense | 98th | 97th |
| Shooting | 66th | 43rd |
| Rebounding | 70th | 52nd |
| Ball security | 82nd | 46th |
| Size & experience | 68th | 49th |
| Schedule | 89th | 98th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Mar 27, 2026Sweet 16· Neutral site
TENTennessee won76–62
Closing line: Iowa State -3.5(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 6 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Iowa State | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| HOUHouston | W70–67home | W76–73neutral |
| KANKansas | L63–84awayW74–56home | L76–81neutral |
| UKKentucky | W82–63neutral | L78–80homeL71–74away |
| MISMississippi State | W96–80neutral | W73–64away |
| SYRSyracuse | W95–64neutral | L60–62away |
| TSUTennessee State | W108–74neutral | W89–60home |