Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
30%
Iowa
70%
Illinois
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Mar 28 (neutral site), median of 1 book.
For that game the model gave Iowa 30% and a 6.2-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 29%. Illinois won 71–59.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Iowa and Illinois, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Strength on strength: Illinois's offense vs. Iowa's defense
Illinois scores 133.4 per 100 possessions (100th percentile); Iowa allows 99.6 (91st percentile).
Even matchup
Strength on strength: Iowa's offense vs. Illinois's defense
Iowa scores 124.9 per 100 possessions (96th percentile); Illinois allows 96.8 (94th percentile).
Even matchup
Illinois is the stronger team on paper
Illinois outscored opponents by 36.6 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Iowa by 25.3.
Edge: Illinois
Illinois has the size advantage
Illinois's minutes-weighted height is 1.3 inches taller than Iowa's.
Edge: Illinois
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Iowa | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 96th | 100th |
| Defense | 91st | 94th |
| Shooting | 86th | 74th |
| Rebounding | 56th | 45th |
| Ball security | 65th | 94th |
| Size & experience | 42nd | 63rd |
| Schedule | 92nd | 97th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Jan 11, 2026· At Iowa
ILLIllinois won75–69
Closing line: Iowa +1.25(did not cover)
Mar 28, 2026Elite Eight· Neutral site
ILL
How each team fared against the 16 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Iowa | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| INDIndiana | W74–57away | W71–51home |
| MARMaryland | W83–64homeL70–77awayW75–64neutral | W89–70homeW78–72away |
| MICMichigan | L68–71home | L70–84home |
| MSUMichigan State | L52–71away | L82–85away |
| MINMinnesota | L67–70away | W77–67home |
| NEBNebraska | W77–71neutralW57–52homeL75–84away | L80–83homeW78–69away |
| NORNorthwestern | W76–70home | W79–68awayW84–44home |
| OSUOhio State | W74–57homeL69–72neutral | W88–80away |
| OREOregon | W84–66away | W80–54home |
| PENPenn State | L69–71away | W73–65away |
| PURPurdue | L72–79awayL57–78home | W88–82away |
| RUTRutgers | W68–62home | W81–55home |
| UCLAUCLA | W74–61home | L94–95away |
| USCUSC | W73–72home | W101–65away |
| WASWashington | W84–74away | W75–66home |
| WISWisconsin | L71–84away | L90–92homeL88–91neutral |
Closing line: Iowa +6.5(did not cover)