Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
6%
Illinois State
94%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Illinois State and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Illinois State by 9.3.
Edge: Duke
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 12.1 points per 100 possessions better than Illinois State's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Illinois State | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 64th | 99th |
| Defense | 84th | 100th |
| Shooting | 59th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 51st | 39th |
| Ball security | 46th | 65th |
| Schedule | 69th | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Illinois State and Duke did not play each other this season.
How each team fared against the 2 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Illinois State | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| INDIndiana State | W85–65homeL89–94away | W100–62home |
| WAKWake Forest | W78–75away | W90–69home |