Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
59%
Illinois
41%
UConn
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Apr 4 (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Illinois 59% and a 2.6-point edge; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 57%. UConn won 71–62.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Illinois and UConn, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Strength on strength: Illinois's offense vs. UConn's defense
Illinois scores 133.4 per 100 possessions (100th percentile); UConn allows 93.0 (97th percentile).
Even matchup
Strength on strength: UConn's offense vs. Illinois's defense
UConn scores 123.2 per 100 possessions (93rd percentile); Illinois allows 96.8 (94th percentile).
Even matchup
Second chances for UConn
UConn grabs 32.4% of its misses (69th percentile); Illinois secures 67.3% of opponents' misses (17th percentile).
Edge: UConn
Second chances for Illinois
Illinois grabs 32.6% of its misses (73rd percentile); UConn secures 68.1% of opponents' misses (28th percentile).
Edge: Illinois
Illinois is the stronger team on paper
Illinois outscored opponents by 36.6 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; UConn by 30.3.
Edge: Illinois
UConn has more continuity
UConn's minutes go to players averaging 2.37 seasons in the program; Illinois's 1.46.
Edge: UConn
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Illinois | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 100th | 93rd |
| Defense | 94th | 97th |
| Shooting | 74th | 63rd |
| Rebounding | 45th | 49th |
| Ball security | 94th | 46th |
| Size & experience | 63rd | 85th |
| Schedule | 97th | 95th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Nov 28, 2025· Neutral site
UCUConn won74–61
Closing line: Illinois +0.25(did not cover)
Apr 4, 2026Final Four· Neutral site
UC
How each team fared against the 3 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Illinois | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| MICMichigan | L70–84home | L63–69neutral |
| MSUMichigan State | L82–85away | W67–63neutral |
| UCLAUCLA | L94–95away | W73–57neutral |
Closing line: Illinois -1.5(did not cover)