Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
9%
Idaho
91%
Houston
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Idaho 9% and a 15.8-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 3%. Houston won 78–47.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Idaho and Houston, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Houston is the stronger team on paper
Houston outscored opponents by 34.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Idaho by 1.8.
Edge: Houston
Houston faced the tougher schedule
Houston's average opponent was 15.8 points per 100 possessions better than Idaho's.
Edge: Houston
Pace clash: Idaho runs, Houston slows it down
Idaho averages 68.7 possessions per 40 minutes; Houston 64.7. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Houston has more continuity
Houston's minutes go to players averaging 2.16 seasons in the program; Idaho's 1.62.
Edge: Houston
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Idaho | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 55th | 94th |
| Defense | 62nd | 99th |
| Shooting | 54th | 66th |
| Rebounding | 61st | 64th |
| Ball security | 82nd | 98th |
| Size & experience | 36th | 65th |
| Schedule | 48th | 94th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
HOUHouston won78–47
Closing line: Idaho +24.25(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 1 opponent they both played.
| Opponent | Idaho | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| NOTNotre Dame | L65–80away | W66–56neutral |