Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
50%
Houston
50%
Illinois
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Mar 26 (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Houston 50% and a 0.0-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 58%. Illinois won 65–55.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Houston and Illinois, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Strength on strength: Illinois's offense vs. Houston's defense
Illinois scores 133.4 per 100 possessions (100th percentile); Houston allows 89.2 (99th percentile).
Even matchup
Second chances for Houston
Houston grabs 34.5% of its misses (91st percentile); Illinois secures 67.3% of opponents' misses (17th percentile).
Edge: Houston
Strength on strength: Houston's offense vs. Illinois's defense
Houston scores 123.6 per 100 possessions (94th percentile); Illinois allows 96.8 (94th percentile).
Even matchup
Second chances for Illinois
Illinois grabs 32.6% of its misses (73rd percentile); Houston secures 68.7% of opponents' misses (36th percentile).
Edge: Illinois
Illinois has the size advantage
Illinois's minutes-weighted height is 1.9 inches taller than Houston's.
Edge: Illinois
Houston has more continuity
Houston's minutes go to players averaging 2.16 seasons in the program; Illinois's 1.46.
Edge: Houston
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Houston | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 94th | 100th |
| Defense | 99th | 94th |
| Shooting | 66th | 74th |
| Rebounding | 64th | 45th |
| Ball security | 98th | 94th |
| Size & experience | 65th | 63rd |
| Schedule | 94th | 97th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Mar 26, 2026Sweet 16· Neutral site
ILLIllinois won65–55
Closing line: Houston -2.75(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 3 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Houston | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| JACJackson State | W80–38home | W113–55home |
| TENTennessee | L73–76neutral | W75–62away |
| TTUTexas Tech | W69–65homeL86–90away | W81–77home |