Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
25%
Hofstra
75%
Alabama
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Hofstra 25% and a 7.7-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 15%. Alabama won 87–69.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Hofstra and Alabama, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Alabama is the stronger team on paper
Alabama outscored opponents by 28.2 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Hofstra by 8.8.
Edge: Alabama
Second chances for Hofstra
Hofstra grabs 31.8% of its misses (63rd percentile); Alabama secures 65.4% of opponents' misses (2nd percentile).
Edge: Hofstra
Alabama faced the tougher schedule
Alabama's average opponent was 19.1 points per 100 possessions better than Hofstra's.
Edge: Alabama
Pace clash: Alabama runs, Hofstra slows it down
Alabama averages 73.8 possessions per 40 minutes; Hofstra 65.4. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Second chances for Alabama
Alabama grabs 30.7% of its misses (51st percentile); Hofstra secures 66.7% of opponents' misses (12th percentile).
Edge: Alabama
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Hofstra | Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 74th | 99th |
| Defense | 72nd | 88th |
| Shooting | 66th | 75th |
| Rebounding | 37th | 27th |
| Ball security | 65th | 98th |
| Size & experience | 51st | 55th |
| Schedule | 51st | 100th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
ALAAlabama won87–69
Closing line: Hofstra +11.75(did not cover)
No common opponents this season.