Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
45%
High Point
55%
Wisconsin
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave High Point 45% and a 1.3-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 15%. High Point won 83–82.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between High Point and Wisconsin, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Wisconsin is the stronger team on paper
Wisconsin outscored opponents by 23.8 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; High Point by 11.9.
Edge: Wisconsin
Wisconsin faced the tougher schedule
Wisconsin's average opponent was 21.5 points per 100 possessions better than High Point's.
Edge: Wisconsin
Wisconsin has the size advantage
Wisconsin's minutes-weighted height is 2.6 inches taller than High Point's.
Edge: Wisconsin
High Point's bench scores more
High Point's reserves average 33.3 points per game; Wisconsin's 19.5.
Edge: High Point
Pace clash: High Point runs, Wisconsin slows it down
High Point averages 71.3 possessions per 40 minutes; Wisconsin 66.1. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | High Point | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 85th | 97th |
| Defense | 66th | 82nd |
| Shooting | 79th | 77th |
| Rebounding | 54th | 54th |
| Ball security | 98th | 98th |
| Size & experience | 10th | 74th |
| Schedule | 20th | 97th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
HPUHigh Point won83–82
Closing line: High Point +10.5(covered)
No common opponents this season.