Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
16%
Hawaiʻi
84%
Arkansas
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Hawaiʻi 16% and a 11.3-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 10%. Arkansas won 97–78.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Hawaiʻi and Arkansas, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Arkansas is the stronger team on paper
Arkansas outscored opponents by 26.6 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Hawaiʻi by 6.6.
Edge: Arkansas
Strength on strength: Arkansas's offense vs. Hawaiʻi's defense
Arkansas scores 128.7 per 100 possessions (98th percentile); Hawaiʻi allows 101.7 (86th percentile).
Even matchup
Arkansas faced the tougher schedule
Arkansas's average opponent was 18.7 points per 100 possessions better than Hawaiʻi's.
Edge: Arkansas
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Hawaiʻi | Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 49th | 98th |
| Defense | 86th | 84th |
| Shooting | 47th | 91st |
| Rebounding | 48th | 32nd |
| Ball security | 15th | 100th |
| Size & experience | 61st | 69th |
| Schedule | 38th | 97th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
ARKArkansas won97–78
Closing line: Hawaiʻi +14.75(did not cover)
No common opponents this season.