Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
7%
Grand Canyon
93%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Grand Canyon and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Grand Canyon by 13.8.
Edge: Duke
Strength on strength: Duke's offense vs. Grand Canyon's defense
Duke scores 129.2 per 100 possessions (99th percentile); Grand Canyon allows 98.7 (92nd percentile).
Even matchup
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 10.5 points per 100 possessions better than Grand Canyon's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Grand Canyon | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 70th | 99th |
| Defense | 92nd | 100th |
| Shooting | 52nd | 69th |
| Rebounding | 55th | 39th |
| Ball security | 28th | 65th |
| Schedule | 72nd | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Grand Canyon and Duke did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.