Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
10%
Furman
90%
UConn
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Furman 10% and a 14.9-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 4%. UConn won 82–71.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Furman and UConn, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
UConn is the stronger team on paper
UConn outscored opponents by 30.3 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Furman by -1.2.
Edge: UConn
UConn faced the tougher schedule
UConn's average opponent was 19.6 points per 100 possessions better than Furman's.
Edge: UConn
UConn's offense should find room
UConn's offense ranks in the 93rd percentile; Furman's defense in the 53rd percentile.
Edge: UConn
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Furman | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 47th | 93rd |
| Defense | 53rd | 97th |
| Shooting | 47th | 63rd |
| Rebounding | 36th | 49th |
| Ball security | 28th | 46th |
| Size & experience | 88th | 85th |
| Schedule | 29th | 95th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
UCUConn won82–71
Closing line: Furman +21.25(covered)
No common opponents this season.