Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
6%
Florida State
94%
Duke
Consensus closing line for their meeting on Mar 12 (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Florida State 6% and a 17.7-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 8%. Duke won 80–79.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Florida State and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Florida State by 12.9.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Florida State
Florida State grabs 32.6% of its misses (73rd percentile); Duke secures 67.9% of opponents' misses (25th percentile).
Edge: Florida State
Pace clash: Florida State runs, Duke slows it down
Florida State averages 71.0 possessions per 40 minutes; Duke 66.5. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 4.4 points per 100 possessions better than Florida State's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Florida State | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 84th | 99th |
| Defense | 73rd | 100th |
| Shooting | 35th | 69th |
| Rebounding | 48th | 39th |
| Ball security | 82nd | 65th |
| Schedule | 81st | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Jan 3, 2026· At Florida State
DUKEDuke won91–87
Closing line: Florida State +16.25(covered)
Mar 12, 2026· Neutral site
DUKEDuke won80–79
Closing line: Florida State +17
How each team fared against the 15 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Florida State | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| BOSBoston College | W80–72home | W67–49home |
| CALCalifornia | W63–61homeW95–89neutral | W71–56away |
| CLEClemson | W70–65away | W67–54homeW73–61neutral |
| FLOFlorida | L76–78away | W67–66home |
| GEOGeorgia Tech | W80–71away | W85–79home |
| NCSTNC State | L69–113home | W93–64away |
| UNCNorth Carolina | L66–79away | L68–71awayW76–61home |
| NOTNotre Dame | W82–79away | W100–56away |
| PITTPittsburgh | W75–74away | W70–54away |
| SMUSMU | L80–83awayW91–78home | W82–75home |
| STAStanford | W88–80home | W80–50away |
| SYRSyracuse | L86–94away | W101–64home |
| VIRVirginia | L58–61home | W77–51homeW74–70neutral |
| VIRVirginia Tech | W92–69away | W72–58away |
| WAKWake Forest | L68–69home | W90–69home |