Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
99%
Florida
1%
Prairie View A&M
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Florida 99% and a 27.2-point edge; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 98%. Florida won 114–55.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Florida and Prairie View A&M, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Florida is the stronger team on paper
Florida outscored opponents by 35.2 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Prairie View A&M by -13.7.
Edge: Florida
Florida faced the tougher schedule
Florida's average opponent was 25.2 points per 100 possessions better than Prairie View A&M's.
Edge: Florida
Florida's offense should find room
Florida's offense ranks in the 98th percentile; Prairie View A&M's defense in the 24th percentile.
Edge: Florida
Second chances for Florida
Florida grabs 35.1% of its misses (95th percentile); Prairie View A&M secures 68.5% of opponents' misses (33rd percentile).
Edge: Florida
Florida has the size advantage
Florida's minutes-weighted height is 2.2 inches taller than Prairie View A&M's.
Edge: Florida
Florida has more continuity
Florida's minutes go to players averaging 2.06 seasons in the program; Prairie View A&M's 1.04.
Edge: Florida
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Florida | Prairie View A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 98th | 15th |
| Defense | 98th | 24th |
| Shooting | 47th | 51st |
| Rebounding | 63rd | 34th |
| Ball security | 65th | 65th |
| Size & experience | 83rd | 8th |
| Schedule | 96th | 5th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
FLOFlorida won114–55
Closing line: Florida -35.25(covered)
How each team fared against the 4 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Florida | Prairie View A&M |
|---|---|---|
| LSULSU | W79–61home | L90–104away |
| MISMissouri | L74–76away | L73–91away |
| NORNorth Florida | W104–64home | W85–82neutral |
| A&MTexas A&M | W86–67away | L82–111away |