Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
76%
Duke
24%
UConn
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Mar 29 (neutral site), median of 1 book.
For that game the model gave Duke 76% and a 8.1-point edge; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 66%. UConn won 73–72.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Duke and UConn, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Strength on strength: Duke's offense vs. UConn's defense
Duke scores 129.2 per 100 possessions (99th percentile); UConn allows 93.0 (97th percentile).
Even matchup
Strength on strength: UConn's offense vs. Duke's defense
UConn scores 123.2 per 100 possessions (93rd percentile); Duke allows 88.7 (100th percentile).
Even matchup
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; UConn by 30.3.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for UConn
UConn grabs 32.4% of its misses (69th percentile); Duke secures 67.9% of opponents' misses (25th percentile).
Edge: UConn
UConn has more continuity
UConn's minutes go to players averaging 2.37 seasons in the program; Duke's 1.60.
Edge: UConn
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Duke | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 99th | 93rd |
| Defense | 100th | 97th |
| Shooting | 69th | 63rd |
| Rebounding | 39th | 49th |
| Ball security | 65th | 46th |
| Size & experience | 69th | 85th |
| Schedule | 96th | 95th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Mar 29, 2026Elite Eight· Neutral site
UCUConn won73–72
Closing line: Duke -4.5(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 6 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Duke | UConn |
|---|---|---|
| FLOFlorida | W67–66home | W77–73neutral |
| KANKansas | W78–66neutral | W61–56away |
| MICMichigan | W68–63neutral | L63–69neutral |
| MSUMichigan State | W66–60away | W67–63neutral |
| SJUSt. John's | W80–75neutral | L72–81awayW72–40homeL52–72away |
| TEXTexas | W75–60neutral | W71–63home |