Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 592 games through Nov 10
51%
Duke
49%
Illinois
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Duke and Illinois, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Duke is safer at the line late
Duke shoots 71.2% on free throws; Illinois 56.9%.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 35.4% of its misses (75th percentile); Illinois secures 61.9% of opponents' misses (11th percentile).
Edge: Duke
Pace clash: Illinois runs, Duke slows it down
Illinois averages 78.3 possessions per 40 minutes; Duke 73.5. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Duke | Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 52nd | 54th |
| Rebounding | 59th | 24th |
| Ball security | 45th | 45th |
| Size & experience | 93rd | 82nd |
Games between them in 2026–27.
Duke and Illinois did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.