Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
45%
Clemson
55%
Iowa
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Clemson 45% and a 1.3-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 44%. Iowa won 67–61.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Clemson and Iowa, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Strength on strength: Iowa's offense vs. Clemson's defense
Iowa scores 124.9 per 100 possessions (96th percentile); Clemson allows 97.4 (94th percentile).
Even matchup
Iowa is the stronger team on paper
Iowa outscored opponents by 25.3 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Clemson by 19.8.
Edge: Iowa
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Clemson | Iowa |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 81st | 96th |
| Defense | 94th | 91st |
| Shooting | 50th | 86th |
| Rebounding | 54th | 56th |
| Ball security | 94th | 65th |
| Size & experience | 46th | 42nd |
| Schedule | 84th | 92nd |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
IOWAIowa won67–61
Closing line: Clemson +1.5(did not cover)
No common opponents this season.