Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
19%
California Baptist
81%
Kansas
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave California Baptist 19% and a 9.9-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 13%. Kansas won 68–60.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between California Baptist and Kansas, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Kansas is the stronger team on paper
Kansas outscored opponents by 24.6 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; California Baptist by 5.9.
Edge: Kansas
Second chances for California Baptist
California Baptist grabs 34.5% of its misses (91st percentile); Kansas secures 66.4% of opponents' misses (10th percentile).
Edge: California Baptist
Kansas faced the tougher schedule
Kansas's average opponent was 19.6 points per 100 possessions better than California Baptist's.
Edge: Kansas
Kansas has the size advantage
Kansas's minutes-weighted height is 1.9 inches taller than California Baptist's.
Edge: Kansas
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | California Baptist | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 45th | 82nd |
| Defense | 86th | 98th |
| Shooting | 33rd | 66th |
| Rebounding | 78th | 9th |
| Ball security | 15th | 65th |
| Size & experience | 38th | 55th |
| Schedule | 46th | 99th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
KANKansas won68–60
Closing line: California Baptist +14.5(covered)
How each team fared against the 3 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | California Baptist | Kansas |
|---|---|---|
| BYUBYU | L60–91away | W90–82home |
| COLColorado | L70–78away | W75–69away |
| UTAHUtah | L85–91away | W71–59home |