Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
60%
BYU
40%
Texas
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave BYU 60% and a 2.9-point edge; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 59%. Texas won 79–71.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between BYU and Texas, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Strength on strength: Texas's offense vs. BYU's defense
Texas scores 124.8 per 100 possessions (96th percentile); BYU allows 101.2 (88th percentile).
Even matchup
Texas's shooters meet a soft perimeter defense
Texas makes 35.7% of its threes (77th percentile); BYU's opponents hit 35.3% (21st percentile defensively).
Edge: Texas
BYU is the stronger team on paper
BYU outscored opponents by 23.9 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Texas by 19.8.
Edge: BYU
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | BYU | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 97th | 96th |
| Defense | 88th | 74th |
| Shooting | 74th | 79th |
| Rebounding | 49th | 62nd |
| Ball security | 65th | 65th |
| Size & experience | 58th | 50th |
| Schedule | 95th | 92nd |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
TEXTexas won79–71
Closing line: BYU -2.5(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 2 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | BYU | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| ARIArizona State | W104–76home | L86–87neutral |
| UCUConn | L84–86neutral | L63–71away |