Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
5%
Butler
95%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Butler and Duke, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Duke is the stronger team on paper
Duke outscored opponents by 40.4 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Butler by 10.9.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Butler
Butler grabs 32.8% of its misses (76th percentile); Duke secures 67.9% of opponents' misses (25th percentile).
Edge: Butler
Duke faced the tougher schedule
Duke's average opponent was 4.8 points per 100 possessions better than Butler's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Butler | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 81st | 99th |
| Defense | 68th | 100th |
| Shooting | 41st | 69th |
| Rebounding | 53rd | 39th |
| Ball security | 65th | 65th |
| Schedule | 81st | 96th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Butler and Duke did not play each other this season.
How each team fared against the 4 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Butler | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| SMUSMU | L85–87away | W82–75home |
| SJUSt. John's | L70–84homeL70–92away | W80–75neutral |
| UCUConn | L60–79awayL70–80home | L72–73neutral |
| VIRVirginia | W80–73neutral | W77–51homeW74–70neutral |