Matchup Lab

Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.

Model win probability

Model · hero-v1

Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15

12%

Auburn

88%

Duke

Predicted score: 69–83
Model spread: Duke −13.8
Fair moneyline: +766 / -766

Range of likely final margins. The solid line is the model's expected margin. Hover to read the chance of a win by any margin.

Sportsbook market

No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2025–26. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.

Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.

Tale of the tape

Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.

AuburnDuke

Efficiency

Efficiency margin: +20.5+40.4; Auburn 91st percentile; Duke 100th percentile. Edge Duke.
Offensive efficiency: 126.0129.2; Auburn 97th percentile; Duke 99th percentile. Even.
Defensive efficiency: 105.588.7; Auburn 71st percentile; Duke 100th percentile. Edge Duke.
Strength of schedule: +15.4+14.9; Auburn 97th percentile; Duke 96th percentile. Even.
Pace: 68.266.5; Auburn 57th percentile; Duke 34th percentile. Even.

Shooting

Field goal %: 46.1%49.1%; Auburn 67th percentile; Duke 95th percentile. Edge Duke.
Three-point %: 34.4%34.7%; Auburn 57th percentile; Duke 61st percentile. Even.
Three-point rate: 40.3%43.6%; Auburn 55th percentile; Duke 73rd percentile. Edge Duke.
Free throw %: 74.4%

Possessions

Offensive rebound %: 35.8%30.8%; Auburn 98th percentile; Duke 53rd percentile. Edge Auburn.
Defensive rebound %: 68.1%67.9%; Auburn 28th percentile; Duke 25th percentile. Even.
Turnover rate: 15.0%16.0%; Auburn 82nd percentile; Duke 65th percentile. Edge Auburn.
Assists per game: 13.1

Defense

Opponent FG %: 46.3%39.3%; Auburn 18th percentile; Duke 98th percentile. Edge Duke.
Opponent 3P %: 36.7%30.6%; Auburn 5th percentile; Duke 92nd percentile. Edge Duke.
Steals per game: 7.57.3; Auburn 72nd percentile; Duke 68th percentile. Even.
Blocks per game: 4.1

Roster

Average height: —6′7.3″; Auburn ; Duke 95th percentile. Even.
Program experience: —1.60 yrs; Auburn ; Duke 43rd percentile. Even.
Bench points: —20.8; Auburn ; Duke 45th percentile. Even.

Profile

National percentile by category
Category	Auburn	Duke
Offense	97th	99th
Defense	71st	100th
Shooting	65th	69th
Rebounding	63rd	39th
Ball security	82nd	65th
Schedule	97th	96th

National percentiles (100th is best). Hover a category to see what it averages.

Head to head

Games between them in 2025–26.

Auburn and Duke did not play each other this season.

Common opponents

How each team fared against the 6 opponents they both played.

Auburn: 5–2; Average margin +2.1
Duke: 6–0; Average margin +10.7

Results against common opponents
Opponent	Auburn	Duke
ARKArkansas	W95–73homeL75–88away	W80–71neutral
FLOFlorida	W76–67away	W67–66home
MICMichigan	L72–102neutral	W68–63neutral
NCSTNC State	W83–73home	W93–64away
SJUSt. John's	W85–74neutral	W80–75neutral
TEXTexas	W88–82home	W75–60neutral

Matchup Lab

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

Model win probability

Sportsbook market

What decides it

Tale of the tape

Efficiency

Shooting

Possessions

Defense

Roster

Profile

Head to head

Common opponents