Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 592 games through Nov 10
28%
Arkansas
72%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between Arkansas and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 35.4% of its misses (75th percentile); Arkansas secures 58.2% of opponents' misses (3rd percentile).
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Arkansas
Arkansas grabs 40.5% of its misses (96th percentile); Duke secures 67.7% of opponents' misses (43rd percentile).
Edge: Arkansas
Duke has more continuity
Duke's minutes go to players averaging 1.89 seasons in the program; Arkansas's 1.26.
Edge: Duke
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 1.0 inches taller than Arkansas's.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Arkansas | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 62nd | 52nd |
| Rebounding | 49th | 59th |
| Ball security | 45th | 45th |
| Size & experience | 61st | 93rd |
Games between them in 2026–27.
Arkansas and Duke did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.