Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
44%
Arizona
56%
Michigan
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Apr 4 (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Arizona 44% and a 1.8-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 52%. Michigan won 91–73.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Arizona and Michigan, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Strength on strength: Michigan's offense vs. Arizona's defense
Michigan scores 130.6 per 100 possessions (99th percentile); Arizona allows 88.9 (99th percentile).
Even matchup
Strength on strength: Arizona's offense vs. Michigan's defense
Arizona scores 126.7 per 100 possessions (98th percentile); Michigan allows 88.8 (100th percentile).
Even matchup
Second chances for Arizona
Arizona grabs 30.4% of its misses (47th percentile); Michigan secures 64.0% of opponents' misses (1st percentile).
Edge: Arizona
Michigan is the stronger team on paper
Michigan outscored opponents by 41.9 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Arizona by 37.9.
Edge: Michigan
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Arizona | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 98th | 99th |
| Defense | 99th | 100th |
| Shooting | 82nd | 89th |
| Rebounding | 25th | 7th |
| Ball security | 82nd | 46th |
| Size & experience | 74th | 67th |
| Schedule | 98th | 100th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Apr 4, 2026Final Four· Neutral site
MICMichigan won91–73
Closing line: Arizona -1.25(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 7 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Arizona | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| ALAAlabama | W96–75neutral | W90–77neutral |
| AUBAuburn | W97–68home | W102–72neutral |
| PURPurdue | W79–64neutral | W91–80awayL72–80neutral |
| SANSan Diego State | W68–45neutral | W94–54neutral |
| TCUTCU | W86–73away | W67–63away |
| UCLAUCLA | W69–65neutral | W86–56home |
| UCUConn | W71–67away | W69–63neutral |