Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 592 games through Nov 10
16%
App State
84%
Duke
No sportsbook line exists for this pairing: books only post lines for games on the schedule, and these teams didn't meet in 2026–27. The fair moneyline above comes from the model, not a book.
The biggest statistical gaps between App State and Duke, quoted from their 2026–27 numbers. Opponent-adjusted efficiency and schedule strength stay hidden until both teams have played 8 games; until then they swing too much to mean anything.
Pace clash: Duke runs, App State slows it down
Duke averages 73.5 possessions per 40 minutes; App State 63.2. Whoever sets the tempo plays its game.
Style matchup
Duke has the size advantage
Duke's minutes-weighted height is 3.1 inches taller than App State's.
Edge: Duke
Second chances for Duke
Duke grabs 35.4% of its misses (75th percentile); App State secures 64.4% of opponents' misses (21st percentile).
Edge: Duke
Second chances for App State
App State grabs 36.6% of its misses (83rd percentile); Duke secures 67.7% of opponents' misses (43rd percentile).
Edge: App State
Duke is safer at the line late
Duke shoots 71.2% on free throws; App State 62.7%.
Edge: Duke
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | App State | Duke |
|---|---|---|
| Shooting | 31st | 52nd |
| Rebounding | 52nd | 59th |
| Ball security | 57th | 45th |
| Size & experience | 34th | 93rd |
Games between them in 2026–27.
App State and Duke did not play each other this season.
No common opponents this season.