Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
23%
Alabama
77%
Michigan
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Mar 27 (neutral site), median of 1 book.
For that game the model gave Alabama 23% and a 8.7-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 18%. Michigan won 90–77.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Alabama and Michigan, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Michigan is the stronger team on paper
Michigan outscored opponents by 41.9 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Alabama by 28.2.
Edge: Michigan
Strength on strength: Alabama's offense vs. Michigan's defense
Alabama scores 129.1 per 100 possessions (99th percentile); Michigan allows 88.8 (100th percentile).
Even matchup
Strength on strength: Michigan's offense vs. Alabama's defense
Michigan scores 130.6 per 100 possessions (99th percentile); Alabama allows 100.9 (88th percentile).
Even matchup
Second chances for Alabama
Alabama grabs 30.7% of its misses (51st percentile); Michigan secures 64.0% of opponents' misses (1st percentile).
Edge: Alabama
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Alabama | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 99th | 99th |
| Defense | 88th | 100th |
| Shooting | 75th | 89th |
| Rebounding | 27th | 7th |
| Ball security | 98th | 46th |
| Size & experience | 55th | 67th |
| Schedule | 100th | 100th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Mar 27, 2026Sweet 16· Neutral site
MICMichigan won90–77
Closing line: Alabama +9.5(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 7 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Alabama | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| ARIArizona | L75–96neutral | W91–73neutral |
| AUBAuburn | W96–92awayW96–84home | W102–72neutral |
| GONGonzaga | L85–95neutral | W101–61neutral |
| ILLIllinois | W90–86neutral | W84–70away |
| MARMaryland | W105–72neutral | W101–83away |
| PURPurdue | L80–87home | W91–80awayL72–80neutral |
| TENTennessee | L73–79homeW71–69away | W95–62neutral |