Matchup Lab
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Any two Division I teams, side by side: who the model favors, by how much, and which numbers decide it.
Neutral court · ratings from 6,213 games through Mar 15
37%
Akron
63%
Texas Tech
Consensus closing line for their tournament game on Invalid Date (neutral site), median of 2 books.
For that game the model gave Akron 37% and a 3.7-point deficit; the market moneyline, with the bookmaker's margin removed, implied 25%. Texas Tech won 91–71.
Track record: fit only on games before the tournament, hero-v1 picked 49 of 67 2026 tournament games correctly (Brier score 0.160; always guessing 50/50 scores 0.250, lower is better). Probabilities assume a normal spread of outcomes with σ = 11.5 points.
The biggest statistical gaps between Akron and Texas Tech, quoted from their 2025–26 numbers.
Texas Tech is the stronger team on paper
Texas Tech outscored opponents by 26.3 points per 100 possessions after adjusting for opponents; Akron by 13.3.
Edge: Texas Tech
Texas Tech's shooters meet a soft perimeter defense
Texas Tech makes 39.1% of its threes (98th percentile); Akron's opponents hit 35.3% (21st percentile defensively).
Edge: Texas Tech
Strength on strength: Akron's offense vs. Texas Tech's defense
Akron scores 120.0 per 100 possessions (88th percentile); Texas Tech allows 98.5 (93rd percentile).
Even matchup
Texas Tech faced the tougher schedule
Texas Tech's average opponent was 19.5 points per 100 possessions better than Akron's.
Edge: Texas Tech
Akron's bench scores more
Akron's reserves average 29.2 points per game; Texas Tech's 13.7.
Edge: Akron
Second chances for Texas Tech
Texas Tech grabs 31.2% of its misses (56th percentile); Akron secures 66.8% of opponents' misses (12th percentile).
Edge: Texas Tech
Bars show each team's percentile among all 365 Division I teams; the longer bar is better, including on defense. Bold marks the edge.
| Category | Akron | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Offense | 88th | 95th |
| Defense | 66th | 93rd |
| Shooting | 92nd | 72nd |
| Rebounding | 27th | 37th |
| Ball security | 82nd | 65th |
| Size & experience | 49th | 16th |
| Schedule | 44th | 99th |
Games between them in 2025–26.
Round of 64· Neutral site
TTUTexas Tech won91–71
Closing line: Akron +6.75(did not cover)
How each team fared against the 2 opponents they both played.
| Opponent | Akron | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| MILMilwaukee | W105–81home | W80–63home |
| PURPurdue | L79–97away | L56–86neutral |